Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Uh Oh

The Case Shiller home price numbers were released this morning.  The numbers are on a three month lag, and this morning we received the information for November.

Home prices fell month over month, down .2% overall.  This marks a turning point for the consecutive months of price increases we have seen since last spring.

You can see pricing for individual cities here.

Yesterday we received existing home sales for the month of December which were down 16.9% month over month, the biggest drop ever.

That will most likely have an impact on the home price data we receive next month for December prices.

Once Bernanke is reaffirmed, it will probably not be too long before we hear about a new home program and his announcement of new mortgage purchases.

The market is now falling with the Fed and the government purchasing all new mortgages, imagine what would happen if they actually stopped?

Or even worse, what if the ocean of shadow inventory came off the banks books and on to the market in foreclosure? 

Could be trouble as we enter the second wave of mortgage resets over the next three years with the option arm mortgages.  Remember, these resets are even larger in size than subprime.

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