Thursday, July 22, 2010

The True Supply Of Homes

Existing home data this morning shows we have now risen to an 8.9 month supply of homes on the market. (3.99 million)  This means at current sales pace, if no additional homes were listed for sale, then it would take 8.9 months for all the homes to sell.

A healthy market has a 4-6 month supply of homes for sale. 

Morgan Stanley recently estimated there are 5 million homes in the shadow inventory.  These are homes in default that the banks are (currently) holding off the market.

When adding in these additional 5 million homes, soon to enter the market, we now have over 24 months supply of homes.  (And don't forget the new supply being churned out by the home builders.)

This was also the final month that will show sales juiced by the home buyer tax credit.

Look for the July sales number released next month to be a blood bath.  Less homes coming off the market.  A tsunami of shadow homes flooding the market.

But have no fear, Helicopter Benjamin Bernanke said today he now has plans to buy additional mortgages if necessary.  I guess he could just buy all 8.9 million homes soon to be on the market.

This afternoon Ron Paul told Ben Bernanke that the Federal Reserve and the US Government have spent $3.7 trillion over the past two years to try and stimulate the economy.  He mentioned that with that amount of money they could have sent a check for $434,000 to every unemployed person in the country.

Instead the money stays at the top, and the size of the hungry and poor population continues to grow.  A society structured this way has only ended one way, and it is not a pretty sight.

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