Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Jim Cramer Vs. The Tuna

On Monday the markets came out firing for the week opening up 208 points.

Jim Cramer, who some consider the face of the financial media and the lead cheerleader for CNBC, began his show Monday evening emotionally drunk with optimism.

Just in case some think I do not present an equally optimistic view on the markets, I present to you the bull case in all its glory.

(Feel free to stop the video at any time if you feel nauseous)



Now that Jim Cramer has had a chance to explain his view on the world.  Let me give you mine:

The ICI data released today shows 13 straight weeks of stock mutual fund outflows.  This is now $50 billion in stock sales from the public this year.  The market is now being pushed up by the commercial banks and high frequency traders artificially.  When they decide to sell, it will be free fall.

12% of Americans now live on food stamps.

1 in every 4 children today lives on food stamps.

There are 9.2 million Americans that are unemployed but that are not receiving an unemployment insurance check.  This number will begin to fall as Obama recently restored the Emergency Unemployment Claims allowing Americans to live on government support for two years or longer.

A recent Pew Research survey found that 55 percent of the US labor force has experienced either unemployment, a pay decrease, a reduction in hours or an involuntary move to part time work since the recession/depression began.

In America today, the average time needed to find a job has risen to a record 35.2 weeks.

50,000 homes per month are now being seized by banks.

Estimates show that based on the pending home sales plunge last month, we will face 11 months of home supply next month.

This number does not include the shadow inventory that will flood the market over the next 18 months.

$1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans will need to be refinanced between 2010 and 2014.  50% of these loans are either 90 days delinquent or underwater.  These losses will lead to massive failures in the small banking industry.

The FDIC currently has 1000 more banks on its troubled watch list.

The FDIC's balance sheet currently has negative $21 billion to bail out these banks and protect the savings of Americans.  The FDIC has a $500 billion lifeline with the Federal Government that it will soon tap.

Our state governments are insolvent across the country.  The Federal Government is pushing through an emergency $26 billion funding bill for the states this evening.  This will be the tip of the ice burg necessary to keep states from declaring bankruptcy, which would lead to massive public jobs lost, enormous state pension funds going unpaid, and state unemployment checks going unpaid.

The Federal Government currently has no money to back up the FDIC or give to the State Governments.  Our country borrows hundreds of billions at debt auctions every month just to stay alive.  Think of a beggar on the street with a homeless sign.  The recent government projections show us breaking through the current debt ceiling of $13.9 trillion by February of next year.

China and Japan, our largest creditors, have recently stopped purchasing United States debt.  The clock is now ticking for the moment when the Federal Reserve becomes the exclusive buyer of US treasury debt.

I prefer to buy stocks and real estate when they are cheap, and sell gold when it's expensive.

We are a long, long, way from that world.

Cramer prefers the opposite strategy.  I will leave it up to you to decide.

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