Wednesday, January 5, 2011

ADP Employment Shows Strength

The ADP Nation Employment Report is released the first week of every month as indicator of how well the official jobs report will look, which is released the first Friday of every month.  (This is the most important piece of economic news released)

This morning the ADP posted an extremely positive reading, sending already bubble levels stock prices even higher.

However, some market participants (me) looked at the ADP report with some skepticism.  Another piece of economic data released today was the ISM Services Employment Index.  The following chart shows how these two pieces of economic data have tracked each other essentially tick for tick over the last decade.

Until today.

The ADP Employment data surged, while the ISM employment index fell significantly creating the separation shown below.  This has me concerned on the reliability of the ADP data.



It appears nothing will stop the stock market freight train, until something does.  Then look out below.

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