Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Commercial Real Estate Prices April

Moody's reported today that commercial real estate prices fell 3.7% month over month and are now down 13% on the year and 49% from the peak of the bubble.

The price collapse comes while most investors believe the economy has bottomed and someone will always lend to a bankrupt country at close to 0%.  If interest rates were to rise on government bonds (see Greece bonds this afternoon as an example) then cap rates (the rate of return an investor pays for a commercial property's income stream) will skyrocket.

Remember the bond see-saw: Rates Up / Prices Down

At this Greek moment investors will be rushing as a herd to their local gold store to purchase coins. Other investors will be selling their coins to this herd and making their way to the local real estate office, which will be empty.

A visual of the continued massacre. (red line)

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