Friday, September 30, 2011

ECRI Leading Economic Indicators

After not confirming (correctly) all last year that the United States had re-entered recession, Lakshman Achuthan from the Economic Cycle Research Institute spoke with CNBC this morning confirming that the US has now entered in recession.  It is a "done deal."  "It is based on dozens of indicators and there is a "contagion among the indicators."



My view is that the United States entered a depression in December of 2007, which it has not left.  A depression has periods of temporary growth/recovery and contraction/recession as seen last in the United States in the 1930's.  The most recent artificial recovery based on government transfer payments and printed currency has already begun to subside and the next leg down will soon begin to move with force.

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