Thursday, March 22, 2012

Kondratiev Interest Rate Wave Cycle Coming To An End

Excellent CNBC discussion with Chris Watling of Long View Economics regarding the 30 year Kondratiev interest rate cycle.  Our most recent cycle began in 1981 and Chris believes that the lows in interest rates reached this past winter have put the bottom in for the current cycle.  This is obviously a problem for the United States, which has financed its deficit with one enormous adjustable rate mortgage.  If yields were to rise just a tick off their ridiculously low levels it would add hundreds of billions every year to our multi-trillion annual deficits.  If yields were to rise to levels that reflect the true value of American government subprime debt, as they are across Europe, then it is game over.  This is coming.

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