Thursday, May 24, 2012

Housing Showdown: Bottom Or More Room To Fall?

Most readers here know my thoughts on the near term direction of home prices (see 2012 Outlook: Residential Real Estate), but it is always good to hear the opinion of other financial professionals. The following Bloomberg discussion pits the bull vs. the bear. The bull's argument is that real estate prices have already fallen 35% so "it can't get much worse....right?" It echos the pronouncements from stock market bulls back in 2000 arguing that the NASDAQ was a buy after it fell 35%. The unfortunate ending for those buying that "discount" was that the NASDAQ ended up falling 80% before finding a bottom. Gary Shilling's (the bear's) argument is based on facts and inventory data, which makes all the homeowners on the set squirm with discomfort thinking about their piece of the American dream sitting at home waiting for them. Most likely underwater.

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