It is always interesting to hear Nigel Farage, who has a background in finance, speak to and answer questions from the European politicians who have a background in.....politics. While Nigel understates how devastating it will be for Greece to leave the euro in the short term (bank runs, food and energy shortages, import prices rising) he does an excellent job of explaining that it is the only option in the long run.
The longer they wait the more difficult the short term pain will be. If Greece removed itself from the euro and allowed their new currency to float downward (it would probably depreciate close to 60% or more as Nigel discusses), and they allowed their bad banks to liquidate through organized bankruptcy (protecting savings accounts) with new and strong banks emerging with clean balance sheets, what kind of person would possibly keep their money in Greece?
Me. I would.
And I would not be alone. Just as the smart money has already left Greece in preparation for the coming devaluation, the smart money would be the first to re-enter after the devaluation took place. New capital would enter the country to purchase the assets at distressed prices and businesses would immediately open up within the borders of Greece to take advantage of the export advantages created by the lower currency. This new production of goods would eventually lower the cost of living within the Greek borders, and it would set off an economic boom. It would just take time.
In the long run (3-5 years) Greece could be one of the strongest economies in Europe. They just need a politician who is willing to be honest with the people. Who knows, if that were to happen Greece may even be an attractive moving destination for someone like myself who is business minded and looking for a place to raise a family.
