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Friday, March 28, 2014

An Update On Agriculture Buying To Start The Year

I mentioned in the 2014 Outlook to start the year that I was buying wheat, corn and sugar. I am a horrible market timer and certainly do not consider myself a "trader." As I discussed in the outlook, I buy investments that I believe have strong long term fundamentals (5 years out), have recently experienced a price decline and have rock bottom sentiment levels. Waiting for those three to connect causes me to mostly sit in cash and wait for the occasional buying opportunity.

Agriculture has been on a tear since January so I was fortunate in the timing. Just as an update for readers, I am no longer adding to positions as prices have moved higher and positive sentiment has returned. As with all investments, I will hold the positions and hope that prices and sentiment decline again. The only asset I am currently buying is physical silver (strong long term fundamentals, recent price decline, and low sentiment levels).

I am watching Chinese stocks and emerging market debt very closely (specifically Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa). My hope is that the continued taper from the Fed leads to further weakness in their currencies (I guess I could call those four the RIBS?), which would trigger a purchase of 3 to 5 year government bonds denominated in those currencies. As almost always, I will most likely be early, which is part of the process in investing in assets people hate.

This site is focused on global economics/finance and not my personal portfolio, but "what are you doing right now?" is the most common question I receive so I thought I would update.