Tuesday, June 17, 2014

The Bifurcated Real Estate & Stock Market In The United States

It is often helpful to dig one step past the mainstream headline of "home sales are up" and "stock prices are up" to see what is really taking place in the financial markets.

Residential home sales in the United States sales have become a bifurcated market with growth in sales now only seen in the top 1% most expensive homes. The remaining 99% have fallen 7.6% during 2014.

The top 1% are out in force bidding up the prices of fine art, sports cars, NBA basketball teams and the most expensive homes in the U.S. There is no price too high to pay for these "trophies" when the assets on the balance sheets of the rich (stocks, bonds and real estate) have mushroomed due to the Federal Reserve's QE programs of the last five years. "The rest" are forced to make home purchase decisions based on down payments, income and home affordability. In that area, known as the real economy, there has been little recovery.



The U.S. stock market is also bifurcating with the new "Nifty Fifty," the top 50 largest stocks in terms of market cap size in the Russell 3000, up over 4% this year. The remainder of the market is down over 1%. Nifty Fifty was a term used in the early 1970's when the largest group of 50 stocks in the market began to separate from the pack and move higher at an explosive pace. The Nifty Fifty then crashed and burned during the decline of 1973 - 1974 with most of the top names declining 60% to 90% or more.



I'm currently reading an excellent book called "Contrarian Investment Strategies: The Psychological Edge" by David Dremen. In the book he goes into detail on the psychological atmosphere surrounding the original Nifty Fifty during the late 1960's and early 1970's. I highly recommend studying history to have a better outlook on what the future may hold, and Dremen's book is an excellent resource for that study.

1 comment:

  1. The growth the home's selling always depends on the market conditions and the trust of the buyers and your facts and the figures shows the positive interest of the buyers to buy property and homes. Now the conditions re getting better and more and more buyers are coming to get their own home.

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