Thursday, September 11, 2014

Facebook's Valuation Crosses $200 Billion: What Is It Really Worth?

I feel confident that if you handed me a stack of market data combined with the operating statements of a commercial building over the past few years I can provide you a detailed explanation for the building's value.

When it comes to putting a value on Facebook, I have no idea. If you'd like the perspective of someone that has little understanding of the technology sector, here are my thoughts:

The market is gaga over the prospect of social media advertising. I've never been on Facebook, so maybe I do not understand, but are all these people around the world clicking on the advertisements and purchasing products? I have gotten to the point where I completely tune out the advertisements that are on a page.

It seems to me that "page views" have become the new "eyeballs" (the term investors used to measure value during the late 1990's technology bubble). Will companies continue to push more money into online advertising if the economy slows and their revenues fall? It's possible that when companies have to decide where to put cash in a rational manner they may stop to ask how much of the social media advertising is generating real sales for their products. Right?

Anyway, Facebook crossed the $200 billion valuation mark this week. I have no intention of purchasing the stock, and I'll probably look like an idiot when it hits a $400 billion valuation in 6 months.





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