Monday, January 19, 2015

Feeling Frothy? CMBS Issuance Making A Comeback

It's hard to believe we're already back to 2004 levels as the chart below shows. CMBS are loans for commercial buildings (office, retail, industrial) that are bundled together and sold to investors. Fannie & Freddie (U.S. government/taxpayer) provide loans for apartments which allowed that market to surge back much faster in terms of volume issuance (many cities are already back above their 2007 bubble peak in apartment prices). Without the government/taxpayer guarantee on commercial mortgages, investors have been tip toeing more slowing back into the water. If the current risk-on yield driven mania lasts another two years we could see this number approach the insanity of 2005 - 2007 before it all comes crashing down again.


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