How Much Growth Does It Take To Cover Interest On Global Debt?
Great piece this morning in the Financial Times by Satyajit Das, who wrote my favorite book of the year (so far); "The Age Of Stagnation."
Policymakers have chosen to ignore the central issue of debt as they try to resuscitate activity. Since 2008, total public and private debt in major economies has increased by over $60tn to more than $200tn, about 300 per cent of global gross domestic product (“GDP”), an increase of more than 20 percentage points.
Over the past eight years, total debt growth has slowed but remains well above the corresponding rate of economic growth. Higher public borrowing to support demand and the financial system has offset modest debt reductions by businesses and households.
"If the average interest rate is 2 per cent, then a 300 per cent debt-to-GDP ratio means that the economy needs to grow at a nominal rate of 6 per cent to cover interest."